Pessimism has a strange advantage over optimism: it can be wrong and still look intelligent. If I predict disaster and it happens, I was right. If it does not, I can say that vigilance prevented it. The optimist has no such protection. To be optimistic is to say what you want, act as if your actions matter, and risk looking naïve. This makes pessimism hard to give up. Every disappointment confirms it, while every success can be dismissed as temporary or lucky. What begins as caution can become an identity.